Deseasonalizing Turkish Macroeconomic Data: A Caveat to Applied Researchers in Turkey

(with C. Emre Alper)

Published in Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Volume: 5(18), April/May/June 2001, pp. 33-52.

This paper analyzes the effects of regular seasonal fluctuations of macroeconomic variables in Turkey due to the religious events (religious holidays and Ramadan)[1] in monthly frequency. Conventional deterministic deseasonalization techniques are applied to the detrended and linearized major macroeconomic series. Investigation of the seasonally filtered series reveals residual seasonal regularities vis-à-vis the religious holidays and Ramadan  for some of the series. Consequences of ignoring this type of seasonality are also scrutinized.

[1] According to the Hegirian Calendar.


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