Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement Error Perspective

(with Francis X. Diebold, Jeremy J. Nalewaik, Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song)

Published in Journal of Econometrics, April 2016, 191(2), 384-397.

We provide a new measure of historical U.S. GDP growth, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the noisy expenditure-side and income-side GDP estimates. The quarter-by-quarter values of our new measure often differ noticeably from those of the traditional measures. Its dynamic properties differ as well, indicating that the persistence of aggregate output dynamics is stronger than previously thought.

First draft : January 2013

Implemented by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia as GDPplus


NBER Working Paper 18954 [April 2013]

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Paper [April 2013]

Most Recent Working Paper (may not be identical to the published version)

Published Paper (requires subscription)

Additional Materials

Maryland Center for Economics and Policy (MCEP) Summary

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